20 Facts About Scenario planning

Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans.

At Royal Dutch Shell for example, scenario planning has been described as changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world prior to formulating specific strategies.

Systems thinking used in conjunction with scenario planning leads to plausible scenario storylines because the causal relationship between factors can be demonstrated.

Scenario planning helps policy-makers and firms anticipate change, prepare responses, and create more robust strategies.

Scenario planning helps a firm anticipate the impact of different scenarios and identify weaknesses.

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The methods and organizations are almost identical, except that scenario planning is applied to a wider variety of problems than merely military and political problems.

Scenario planning is as much art as science, and prone to a variety of traps as enumerated by Paul J H Schoemaker.

Scenario planning adopted the term "scenarios" to describe these stories.

Several large companies began to embrace scenario planning including DHL Express, Dutch Royal Shell and General Electric.

Part of the overall process which is radically different from most other forms of long-range planning is the central section, the actual production of the scenarios.

Contingency Scenario planning is a "What if" tool, that only takes into account one uncertainty.

However, scenario planning considers combinations of uncertainties in each scenario.

Sensitivity analysis analyzes changes in one variable only, which is useful for simple changes, while scenario planning tries to expose policy makers to significant interactions of major variables.

Scenario planning analysis is a process of analyzing future events by considering alternative possible outcomes.

Scenario planning-building is designed to allow improved decision-making by allowing deep consideration of outcomes and their implications.

Scenario planning is a tool used during requirements analysis to describe a specific use of a proposed system.

Scenario planning concerns planning based on the systematic examination of the future by picturing plausible and consistent images of that future.

Since scenario planning is “information hungry”, Delphi research can deliver valuable input for the process.

The analysts of this company publicly estimated that this Scenario planning process made their company the largest in the world.

However other observers of Shell's use of scenario planning have suggested that few if any significant long-term business advantages accrued to Shell from the use of scenario methodology.