24 Facts About Delphi method

Delphi method or Delphi technique is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.

Delphi method has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.

Delphi method is based on the principle that forecasts from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups.

Name Delphi derives from the Oracle of Delphi, although the authors of the method were unhappy with the oracular connotation of the name, "smacking a little of the occult".

The Delphi method assumes that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

Related searches

Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare.

The authors provide a methodological toolbox for designing Delphi surveys including among others sentiment analyses of the field of psychology.

Delphi method allows participants to comment on the responses of others, the progress of the panel as a whole, and to revise their own forecasts and opinions in real time.

Person coordinating the Delphi method is usually known as a facilitator or Leader, and facilitates the responses of their panel of experts, who are selected for a reason, usually that they hold knowledge on an opinion or view.

The objective of the Delphi method was to combine expert opinions on likelihood and expected development time, of the particular technology, in a single indicator.

Later the Delphi method was applied in other places, especially those related to public policy issues, such as economic trends, health and education.

Delphi method has been used as a tool to implement multi-stakeholder approaches for participative policy-making in developing countries.

One successful example of a web-based policy Delphi method is the five-round Delphi method exercise for the creation of the eLAC Action Plans in Latin America.

The Delphi method approach has been successfully employed to improve agreement between experts in iterative rating exercises on clinical test results using inter-rater kappa statistics as an outcome measure.

Traditionally the Delphi method has aimed at a consensus of the most probable future by iteration.

The Argument Delphi method, developed by Osmo Kuusi, focuses on ongoing discussion and finding relevant arguments rather than focusing on the output.

The Disaggregative Policy Delphi method, developed by Petri Tapio, uses cluster analysis as a systematic tool to construct various scenarios of the future in the latest Delphi method round.

The computerization of Argument Delphi method is relatively difficult because of several problems like argument resolution, argument aggregation and argument evaluation.

The computerization of Argument Delphi method, developed by Sadi Evren Seker, proposes solutions to such problems.

Today the Delphi method is a widely accepted forecasting tool and has been used successfully for thousands of studies in areas varying from technology forecasting to drug abuse.

Particular weakness of the Delphi method is that future developments are not always predicted correctly by consensus of experts.

One of the initial problems of the Delphi method was its inability to make complex forecasts with multiple factors.

Still the Delphi method can be used most successfully in forecasting single scalar indicators.

Delphi method has characteristics similar to prediction markets as both are structured approaches that aggregate diverse opinions from groups.