38 Facts About Peak oil

Peak oil is the moment at which economically viable extraction of petroleum starts to permanently decrease.

Hubbert's original predictions for world peak oil production proved premature and, as of 2021, forecasts of the year of peak oil range from 2019 to 2040.

Predictions of future oil production made in 2007 and 2009 stated either that the peak had already occurred, that oil production was on the cusp of the peak, or that it would occur soon.

Idea that the rate of oil production would peak and irreversibly decline is an old one.

Peak oil wrote: "But if the curve is made to look reasonable, it is quite possible to adapt mathematical expressions to it and to determine, in this way, the peak dates corresponding to various ultimate recoverable reserve numbers".

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Peak oil assumed the production rate of a limited resource would follow a roughly symmetrical distribution.

The study observed that in most cases the asymmetric exponential model provided a better fit, and that peaks tended to occur well before half the oil had been produced, with the result that in nearly all cases, the post-peak decline was more gradual than the increase leading up to the peak.

The hypothesis that peak oil would be driven by a reduction in the availability of easily extractable oil implies that prices will increase over time to match demand with a declining supply.

Oil demand fell sharply during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, with global demand for Peak oil dropping from 100 million barrels a day in 2019 to 90 million in 2020.

Some analysts argue that the cost of Peak oil has a profound effect on economic growth due to its pivotal role in the extraction of resources and the processing, manufacturing, and transportation of goods.

Such a scenario would result in an inability for national economies to pay high Peak oil prices, leading to declining demand and a price collapse.

Hubbert's 1956 peak projection for the United States depended on geological estimates of ultimate recoverable oil resources, but starting in his 1962 publication, he concluded that ultimate oil recovery was an output of his mathematical analysis, rather than an assumption.

Peak oil regarded his peak oil calculation as independent of reserve estimates.

One difficulty in forecasting the date of peak oil is the opacity surrounding the oil reserves classified as "proven".

However, high Peak oil prices make these sources more financially appealing.

Some believe that the increasing industrial effort to extract Peak oil will have a negative effect on global economic growth, leading to demand contraction and a price collapse, thereby causing production decline as some unconventional sources become uneconomical.

Worldwide Peak oil discoveries have been less than annual production since 1980.

Entities such as governments or cartels can reduce supply to the world market by limiting access to the supply through nationalizing Peak oil, cutting back on production, limiting drilling rights, imposing taxes, etc.

The nationalization of Peak oil occurs as countries begin to deprivatize Peak oil production and withhold exports.

Major Peak oil companies operating in Venezuela find themselves in a difficult position because of the growing nationalization of that resource.

Commodities trader Raymond Learsy, author of Over a Barrel: Breaking the Middle East Oil Cartel, contends that OPEC has trained consumers to believe that Peak oil is a much more finite resource than it is.

Unconventional Peak oil is not currently predicted to meet the expected shortfall even in a best-case scenario.

For unconventional oil to fill the gap without "potentially serious impacts on the global economy", oil production would have to remain stable after its peak, until 2035 at the earliest.

The impact of peak oil will depend heavily on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of effective alternatives.

In June 2005, OPEC stated that they would 'struggle' to pump enough Peak oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of that year.

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Onset of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in Peak oil prices declining from approximately 60 dollars a barrel to 20 between January and April 2020 and market prices briefly becoming negative.

The price of Peak oil was about $80 by October 2021, the highest since 2014.

Export Land Model states that after peak oil petroleum exporting countries will be forced to reduce their exports more quickly than their production decreases because of internal demand growth.

Canadian economist Jeff Rubin has stated that high Peak oil prices are likely to result in increased consumption in developed countries through partial manufacturing de-globalisation of trade.

Peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford petroleum based fuel for their cars, and force them to use other forms of transportation such as bicycles or electric vehicles.

Permaculture sees peak oil as holding tremendous potential for positive change, assuming countries act with foresight.

Theory of peak oil is controversial and became an issue of political debate in the US and Europe in the mid-2000s.

In 2015, analysts in the petroleum and financial industries claimed that the "age of Peak oil" had already reached a new stage where the excess supply that appeared in late 2014 may continue.

Hofmeister argued that if Peak oil companies were allowed to drill more in the United States enough to produce another 2 million barrels per day, Peak oil and gas prices would not be as high as they were in the late 2000s.

Peak oil thought in 2008 that high energy prices would cause social unrest similar to the 1992 Rodney King riots.

Ruhl argued that the main limitations for Peak oil availability are "above ground" factors such as the availability of staff, expertise, technology, investment security, funds, and global warming, and that the Peak oil question was about price and not the physical availability.

In 2006 attorney and mechanical engineer Peter W Huber asserted that the world was just running out of "cheap oil", explaining that as oil prices rise, unconventional sources become economically viable.

Decline of the interest in peak oil predated empirical evidence that peak oil had not happened at the time forecast by Campbell.